It will surprise no one that U.S. environmental and energy public policy will change dramatically in 2025. Donald Trump was Time magazine’s Man of the Year in 2024, even before his inauguration as the 47th President. This is much more than only shrinking the EPA and restoring American energy dominance, the trajectory of federal environmental practices is about to undergo a seismic transformation.

In a recent webinar for our clients and friends, I identified more than 125 expected environmental rule changes in President Trump’s second term representing a realignment of government priorities and opportunities.

A Legacy of Deregulation

If the past is prologue, and I believe history is always a good place to start, the first Trump Administration reversed, revoked, and otherwise rolled back more than 100 environmental rules. But it is widely believed this Administration will be much more than that, ..

Our commercial real estate clients are exhilarated because a real estate developer will be the President of the United States. And the glee extends to almost every sector of the economy because the President will be a businessman who understands the issues that drive making a profit (.. as opposed to President Biden who spent his entire working life in government (sans 6 months in 1968 when he worked as a law clerk at a law firm).

Key Changes in Environmental Policy

We can learn much from President Trump’s own words: Only second to his priority of beginning deportations of criminal immigrants, the President elect’s priority “on day one” is the issue poll after poll showed was the most important issue to voters, the economy and his plan to attack it by rolling back clean energy and environmental regulations.

That is the 47th President’s message of “drill, baby drill” is carrying through with his second priority “to defeat inflation and to bring down consumer prices rapidly down.”.. “If you make doughnuts, if you make cars, whatever you make, energy is a big deal, and .. it’s my ambition to get your energy bill within 12 months down 50%.”

Trump said at more than one of his rallies, “On day one of the Trump administration, I will terminate Kamala’s insane electric vehicle mandate, and we will end the green new scam once and for all. The green new scam will end.” (Of course, “green new deal” legislation never passed Congress, but those environmental policies were included in the Biden Inflation Reduction Act.)

Certain regulatory repeals will take longer than one day, like the plan to undo California’s waiver allowing it to set a stricter standard than the federal government’s electric vehicle mandate. Revoking the waiver will also roll back Maryland and four other states’ adoption of that California zero emission mandate (.. that will also have the effect of continuing to allow motorhome sales in those states).

Moreover, with respect to EVs, it is all but certain that the EPA will revoke its electric vehicle mandate which would have resulted in automakers shifting at least 54% of production to EVs.

Pendant to those actions will be new mandates for states that exceed national standards, like going beyond the International Energy Conservation Code will not be eligible for funds from related federal agencies; literally, the opposite practices of the Biden administration that entered into secret funding deals including with Maryland to go beyond energy codes standards.

The other shoe will drop on EV vehicles when federal subsidies on EV sales, not to mention sales of other ‘green’ equipment from solar panels to heat pumps, are rolled back (.. yes, apparently even Elon Musk supports this).

And then there are the uncertain details about tariffs on goods from China, but that will all but certainly include EV batteries and battery materials. Beyond EVs, the U.S. becoming reliant on Chinese computer chips, drones, and solar panels will all but certainly mean more tariffs and trade restrictions.

Trump also said at a rally in New Jersey that he intended to sign an executive order on day one that would halt “horrible” offshore windmill projects.

The President Elect has repeatedly said he will have the U.S. withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords, as he did by Executive Order in his first term. Of note, it would take a year for that move to take effect under the terms of the pact that require prior notice to the U.N. Secretary General, but it is expected that will be a first step.

Other obvious day one actions are a freeze and then a recission of all pending regulations, a stay of rule making litigation (for example, the Biden proposed SEC climate disclosures, etc.), and the undoing of most Biden executive orders that will be replaced with new executive orders (for example, Dept. of Labor required consideration of ESG in retirement investing, etc.).

But it is much more rolling back prior government acts and shrinking the EPA that grew by thousands of workers and more thousands of contractors under the Biden Administration, it is returning the EPA to its historic role and purpose. The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 Presidential Transition project, with the chapter on EPA edited by Mandy Gunasekara, chief of staff at the agency for the last half of the first Trump presidency, recommends the correct role for the government is, “Creating a better environmental tomorrow with clean air, safe water, healthy soil, and thriving communities.”

The Broader Implications

Recall during Trump 45, progressives were heard to complain of the politicization of science at EPA which after Biden hiring of thousands, including, at the more than 1,500 person EPA Office of Research and Development, to expedite the distribution of billions of dollars in incentives, now sounds like more than the pot calling the kettle Black; it was the height of hypocrisy.

There is also much known about Lee Zeldin, the nominee for EPA Administrator. He has gotten a bit of a bad rap from progressive environmentalists, including the League of Conservation Voters, which gave him a lifetime score of 14%, but that is a badge of honor among many, no doubt including his new boss. Critics are also heard to complain that his only prior interest in environmental matters was PFOS regulation, but the prior New York Congressman has been a consistent conservative voice for less government. Also, key will be Doug Burgum, who is being nominated for Secretary of the Interior and also as an energy czar, and also Chris Wright who is being nominated as Secretary of Energy.

Courts will Play and Outsized Role

Incident to all of this many expect much more litigation of environmental matters. Maryland has already hired attorneys to sue the new Trump administration before it even knows what for, as have other Blue states. The Environmental Defense Council launched a satellite to measure methane which one can expect that data to be key in future global warming litigation that the organization will commence as will other NGOs. Possibly most significant among this broad breadth of change will be federal court judicial challenges of Biden era laws against states and the federal government by businesses and citizens, for example pursuing claims that the 2024 Maryland BEPS regulations are preempted by longstanding federal law.

Opportunities Amidst Change

The deregulatory approach represents a sharp pivot; it also opens new avenues for businesses. Yet, navigating this rapidly evolving landscape will require strategic planning and an understanding of the new regulatory and legal environment.

The certainty that the rollback of environmental regulation will be “the” environmental issue of 2025 is more than a Magic 8 Ball prediction, although we regularly consult the 1960s era plastic sphere I keep on my desk. Lee Zeldin has not said much publicly since his nomination was announced, but there are reports circulating about the transition ‘landing team’ initial meetings with EPA staff. There is insight to be gleaned from the team around Zeldin as he meets with Senators and prepares for his confirmation hearing. And there are undoubtedly many very good ideas about what will be forthcoming from the Project 2025 Presidential Transition project although the policy agenda was published in April 2023 (.. light years ago in modern politics).

Preparing for the Future

The environmental and energy policy changes ushered in by the Trump administration will be among the most consequential issues of 2025. Businesses should remain vigilant, adaptive, and proactive in responding to this deregulatory focus. Whether your company sees these changes as challenges or opportunities, one thing is clear; the landscape is evolving, and the decisions made in Washington will ripple across every sector of the economy, if not society itself.

We are here to help you navigate this transformation and identify opportunities in this new regulatory environment.
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Join us for the next in our “carbon based life forms” webinar series, “How to Order a Phase I Environmental Site Assessment” on Tuesday, January 14 from 9 – 9:30 am. The webinar is complimentary, but you must register here.